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Introductory Notes |
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Contents
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What is the STAR Selection Programme ? The STAR monthly updates
provide you with a straightforward structured approach to share selection
and equity portfolio management. By means of the regularly updated share
ranking lists you have the choice of either closely following the signals
given for model portfolios comprising 10 and 20 shares or of devising
your own preferred strategies. In essence the STAR approach
is based on the results derived from a simple process that regularly reassesses
the relative share values of the largest 300 quoted UK companies. By taking
account of expected corporate growth rates and also the latest stock market
valuations of each company's shares STAR delivers a regular framework
for investment decision making. There is no magic or guarantee
to the methods used. What the regular updates do is to sort out each month
those companies that combine the highest expected rates of earnings growth
with the lowest prospective price earnings ratios. The approach tends
towards that of value investing by selecting shares that are temporarily
out of favour with investors. Provided that their lack of support is not
due to deteriorating profits growth such companies frequently prove to
be successful investments. One of the keys to this is to check the trend
in earnings forecasts and avoid, where possible, those equities where
the share price fall is preceding a significant reduction in earnings
estimates. The basic share ranking
methods have been developed by testing a large number of forward estimates,
such as dividends, earnings and cash flow, since 1985 and selecting those
that have proved to be successful over the longer term. However, it must be stressed
that there are bound to be periods, especially during a bear market, when
these structured methods result in returns that are below the market average.
Despite this there have only been four years, 1990,1996,1997 and 1998,
over the past seventeen when the STAR selections underperformed the market
and then only by a marginal amount. The methods of share selection
that form the basis of the STAR monthly online updates were developed
by John Mulligan, the Managing Director of MD Management, in order to
provide him with an objective approach for managing his own portfolio
of UK quoted shares. In the absence of any regular data source that he
could use to select and subsequently manage his shares he devised this
structured approach to share selection and management. It is a rigorously
researched method of regularly re-rating leading shares according to a
number of key fundamental criteria. These methods have been
developed by MD Management Limited over the past 17 years and are backed
by more than 4000 hours research. This has involved a detailed study into
the relationship between monthly equity earnings and dividend forecasts,
since 1985, and the subsequent movement in prices of the relevant shares.
The most consistently successful combinations of factors have now been
selected for use in STAR The STAR updates provide
a regular monthly investment evaluation on 300 of the largest UK quoted
companies. They employ methods of evaluating and rating leading UK shares
that enable you to select and manage your own share portfolios to suit
your own investment objectives and preferences. They do all this with
the minimum cost and effort. The STAR updates combine
three sets of share selection indicators. One is primarily for growth,
one for growth combined with a higher level of income and one selected
for growth from the 100 largest companies. The monthly STAR updates are
specifically designed to help in the management of ISA share portfolios
and self-invested personal pension plans as well as conventional portfolios. The methods, which are used
to provide regular investment signals for the STAR updates, have been
back-tested on a monthly basis since 1985. During this period annual selected
lists of ten shares would have grown in value, before deducting costs,
more than three times as fast as the FTSE All Share Index. Remember
however, that past performance on any investment management programme
or selection process is no guarantee to future success. One of the main advantages
of the methods used for selecting growth shares is that in most years,
since 1985, relatively few share switches have been signalled during the
course of the year. The records indicate that on average less than one
half of the shares in each portfolio were switched in each year between
1985 and 2003. What the STAR updates Contain Each monthly update usually
contains a short commentary on the latest movements and trends in the
UK stock market as well as charts and editorial on both the fundamental
and technical background to current equity markets. The monthly updates
also provide the latest share selections for growth and income portfolios
as well as updates on each of the 300 shares regularly monitored. More specifically the bulletins
are usually set out as follows:- · A regular commentary "comment and Analysis" section that includes a resume of domestic and international equity markets. The progress of the UK equity market is also featured in a regularly updated chart, with plots of both long term and short term moving average lines, generated from MD Management's database. ·
There are separate files listing the latest shares selections for each
of the two portfolio types:- Each of these files has a list of the current highest rated shares. The same pages also comment on the progress of the year's benchmark share selections and detail changes in the current month's purchase and sale lists. The "Full Ranking List" classifies all 300 companies by sector and indicates the current price, dividend yield, borrowing level, ranking position and action rating. ·
For those investors wishing
to construct and manage portfolios with more than 20 shares the "Top
100 Ranking List" tabulates the top 100 shares with their latest ranking
and rating values. To check on those shares that are currently flagged as sales STAR subscribers
may check on "The sales List" which contains all shares that are
presently flagged for disposal. The monthly record of each of the ten share selection lists can be found
on "The STAR Results" page. This shows the latest price of each
of the 10 shares in the 2 lists and compares the average price movement
with that of the FTSE All Share Index. How to Use the Programme The STAR updates may be
used in any of the following ways:- b) To manage part or all of an existing portfolio c) To
select shares for self-managed ISAs and Pensions STAR subscribers are provided
with detailed explanatory notes which show, in detail, how STAR can be
used to set up and manage share portfolios starting from cash funds as
well as from existing fully invested portfolios. Because the STAR updates
concentrate on the three hundred largest UK quoted companies you are unlikely
to encounter any practical dealing difficulties unless the overall portfolio
size is really massive. In essence the STAR approach therefore offers
you an extremely low cost and simple way in which you can manage your
equity investments. Although the methods used
in the bulletins have been back tested on a monthly basis since 1985 and
in most years have provided results vastly better than the main indices,
there have been periods when the annual and monthly selections have significantly
underperformed the general market. It is therefore important that the
STAR methods are viewed over the long term and not used as investment
trading signals. This means that you should really allow the approach
to work for at least two years before making a judgement on its overall
effectiveness.
General Notes and Warning Before using the STAR
updates you should carefully consider the likely dealing and transaction
costs as well as all taxation implications and, if in any doubt, you should
seek professional financial advice. The information contained within the
STAR updates is provided strictly on the basis that subscribers make their
own investment decisions. Users of the STAR updates must accept that the
value of their investments can go down as well as up and past performance
is no guarantee of future income, earnings or capital growth. STAR bulletin is a publication
that features certain securities and comments on them, based on a number
of factors. These factors are prepared by MD Management Limited, which
is regulated by the Financial Services Authority. MD Management Limited
is not obliged to disclose the basis on which the STAR factors have been
prepared. These factors may vary and are subject to change from time to
time without notice. The information contained
within the STAR updates will be prepared with all reasonable care. No
responsibility is accepted for errors and omissions. MD Management Limited
cannot be held responsible for any losses (including, without limitation,
consequential loss) which may be incurred by you acting on any information
contained within the publication. The contents of the STAR
updates do not constitute, nor should they be taken as, a recommendation
to buy, sell or otherwise maintain any particular investment or share
holding and take no account of whether a particular investment is best
suited to an investor's individual circumstances at any time. MD Management Limited
cannot give, nor should the communication of any information given within
the STAR updates be taken as being investment or taxation advice. MD Management
Limited is only the publisher of the STAR updates and, in this context,
is not acting as a financial adviser. If you need investment
or taxation advice you should consult a duly authorised financial adviser.
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